2005, Google launches “Talk”, touted as a “great victory for XMPP”, with “large-scale XMPP services”.
2012, Google encourages “Talk” users to switch to “Hangouts”.
2013, Google drops open XMPP interoperability with other servers.
2015, Google begins shutting down “Talk” clients.
2017, previous phase is now complete, XMPP is virtually unheard of.
2022, Google shuts down all XMPP integration. XMPP is, for all intents an purposes, dead. 🪦
2016, Mastodon is born. 👶
2023, Meta launches “Thread”, touted as a great victory for Mastodon. ← You are here.
2030, Meta encourages “Thread” users to switch to “Fabric”.
2031, Meta drops open ActivityPub interoperability with other servers.
2033, Meta begins shutting down “Thread” clients.
2035, previous phase is now complete, Mastoson is virtually unheard of.
2040, Meta shuts down all Mastodon integration. Mastodon is, for all intents an purposes, dead. 🪦
N.B.: The delays in the timeline were copied over verbatim. Historical conditions have to be taken into account, as the popular adoption of internet began in the late 2000s. So it is likely for the “extinguish” phase of Mastodon to happen much faster. I give it 5 years tops. And by 2030, we will all remember it as we now remember XMPP.
N.B.: The delays in the timeline were copied over verbatim. Historical conditions have to be taken into account, as the popular adoption of internet began in the late 2000s. So it is likely for the “extinguish” phase of Mastodon to happen much faster. I give it 5 years tops. And by 2030, we will all remember it as we now remember XMPP.