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Cake day: June 11th, 2025

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  • Schumer already did a kind of shy endorsement of Mamdani, after that the others politicians don’t have much room to stab the party in the back. The problem here are the donors; oligarchs are pissed.

    My current bet would be that Cuomo will leave his name in the ballot out of spite but not really campaign, and lots of right wing Democrats will stay silent, while the oligarchs will try to resurrect Adams’ political career by throwing money at it (may all their donations burn into a pile of useless ash)




  • I am not an expert, but what I remember from the news with a little refresher from wikipedia, the main issue is that dispute settlement mechanism is broken for two reasons:

    • National security concerns were allowed as an opaque excuse to break the rules
    • Trump and Biden blocked appointments to the bodies that are responsible for enforcing the rules, so there’s no one even trying to enforce the rules inside of the WTO for 6 years now. The EU and some other members have an ad-hoc mechanism to settle disputes, but it’s not recognized by the US.

    But the underlying problem is that US wants rules that apply to others but not them, and nothing short of the Yellowstone finally going off will change it in the short term.










  • As a potential independent candidate Cuomo didn’t poll that bad if you don’t consider that:

    • the 39% he got are the same as Mamdani, so it would be 50/50 at best
    • as a known quantity, this 39% are probably his ceiling
    • it still didn’t factor Schumer effectively endorsing Mamdani on social media

    Political players are in still in flux, but, for the right wing of the Democratic Party, moving against Mamdani is getting riskier and riskier by the day. Not only would they lose the “unity” argument to mobilize the left close to the midterms, but the risk of suffering an humiliating defeat is too great.