I did advanced mathematics and chose physics as one of my elective subjects in school. Nowadays, I do a lot of work based around analytics and forecasting.
“We need to find the average of this.”
“That’s easy. I’ll do some more advanced stuff to really dial in the accuracy.”
“Awesome. What’s the timeframe?”
looks at million row dataset “To find the average? Like a month. Some of these numbers are mispelled words… Why are all these blank?”
“Oh, you’ll have to read this 45 page document that outlines the default values.”
And that’s how roffice maths works. Lots and lots of if conditions, query merges, and meetings with other teams trying to understand why they entered in the thing they entered. By the time the data wrangling phase is complete, you give zero fucks about doing more than supplying the average.
Oh, sorry the 45 page document is for something else. The only person who understands this dataset is Dave and he was made redundant 5 years ago. Anyway, can you get this done today?
Yup this is every job now. Wrangling numbers. The actual job or calculation could be done in days if less. But dealing with dirty information and playing detective which isnt even part of it is the sink hole of every job right now.
Is this why chatgpt has a chance at optimizing work? Because it will filter out boring mistakes for you
Until it introduces a bunch of mistakes of its own. AI as a test has failed in several industries before now. It’s been around much longer than you’d think and has been tested in the BG for a lonnng time with much fail to the result of disgust if you even bring it up. It’s nothing more than a novelty in writing that doesn’t require the need to run on tight, non rational numbers. Something of which no binary based, household (and most industry) computer is capable of.
Look up the Ariane 5 rocket disaster. It is the summary of floating point error that can result in disaster. This is the limitation that is present in all standard computers you’d be accessing today since the 1930’s.
(Also referred to as round off errors or truncation errors in avionics because of how common irrational numbers are in spatial navigation.)
Lol, I have still written python scripts to deal with them all.
I miss those days…
I think the solution is 42
What is the advanced stuff you can do if you don’t have garbage data?
That’s a tough question in analytics lol
You mean mathematical examples? Or like examples of analytical outcomes? Keeping in mind the more analytics-heavy, the more it involves lots of sources, patterns, variables, and scenarios, but I could provide just a single example.
Edit: Oh, wait. If you’re referring to just averages… In forecasting I prefer, as a minimum, to do weighted averaging. This is where I’ll have a certain time period of cumulated historical data that provides a more stable base, however more weight is applied the more recent (relevant) the data is. This shows a more realistic average than a single snapshot of data that could be an outlier.
But speaking of outliers, I’d prefer to also apply weight to outlying data points that may skew the output, especially if sample size is low. Like 1, 2, 2, 76, 3, 2. That 76 obviously skews the “average”.
Above that, depending on what’s required, I’ll use a proper method. Like if someone wants to know on average how many trucks they need a day, I’ll utilise Poisson instead to get the number of trucks they need each day to meet service requirements, including acceptable queuing, during the day. Like how the popular Erlang formulas utilise Poisson distribution and can kind of handle 90% of BAU S&D loading in day to day operations with a couple clicks.
That’s a basic example, but as data cleanliness increases, those better steps can be taken. Could be like 25 average last Wed vs. 20 weighted average over last month vs. 16 actually needed if optimised correctly.
Oh, and if there’s data on each truck’s mileage, capacity, availability, traffic density in areas over the day, etc…obbioisly it can be even more optimised. Though I’d only go that far if things were consistent/routine. Script it, automate it, set and forget and have the day’s forecast appear in the warehouse each morning.
And yet such simple things are often incredibly hard to get done because of poor data governance or systems.
Geez, that reminds me of a former colleague that, when asked for “the numbers,” would just send screenshots of tables in the ERP system instead of exporting them to a spreadsheet. What’s even worse, usually a lot of values were plain wrong, on one occasion more than half of them.
I was denied a mathematics education, for real. I can’t even do long division, nevermind that squiggly F shit. I thought that stuff was only for astrophysicists.
I want to learn basic maths, but I’m in a ‘learned helplessness’ mindset where I can’t even get through basic sums and equations intended for children (I’m old as fuck now).
I was diagnosed with autism a few years back, which kinda made no sense. I would have expected rainman powers, but numbers just don’t jive with my cunt of a brain. Maths is as inscrutable to me as people’s faces or social cues.
I did an honors math+cs degree. I’m pretty good at advanced math. I never learned long division. Don’t feel bad about that.
(In case any other mathy people read this and wonder how I could understand ring theory without Euclid’s division algorithm, relax)
Just go on Khan academy and do a lesson a day. It will take time(years) but you’ll learn.
Most of the math I do at work is related to compound interest. Of all the math I believe the general public should understand, the concept of how paying interest to others is a total screw would get my top vote.
I have a co-worker who took out a car loan last week at, wait for it, FIFTY THREE PERCENT INTEREST! No concept of what that was costing her. She could only see, “I can afford the monthly payment.”
(1 + r)^n and its friend 1/(1 + r)^n have been the two most important concepts in work and personal life that I’ve ever learned and applied.
53%?!
Sounds like one of those shitty used car joints “no credit, no problem” that you sign your life away for a mediocre car.
That is usury. That cannot be legal? Oh, no, I just checked, wow, usury laws are weak af.
Usury was indeed the term that immediately came to mind.
I kinda miss doing those relatively simple physics probems like finding how far something goes based on velocity and shit.
What’s the college one mean?
Same as high school but fancier?
How the hell is “average price” useful?
Thats like buying potatoes and pork chops and saying the average price is $8.75. Technically true but practically useless.
We did a lot of straight algebra in highschool, I don’t need the exact skill but its boosted my abstract thinking a lot which helps in other things
Lucky, my school only did gay algebra and look at me now 😩
But have you found x 😁
£7.99 for a stapler?!
It always gets mez the older I get I better realize how Jank my education was,
Elementary school taught me addition, Middle School Taught me multiplication Junior High Taught me pre-algebra College is teaching me addition, but with common core
One day, maybe for my bachelor’s I’ll learn some of those funny math symbols…but not today
As an Applied Mathematician I feel both seen and attacked by this. At least I get to play with novel analysis because the company I work for is pretty niche.
So fucking real
